SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Miami, which lost two games this season, both to unranked teams, goes into tonight’s Fiesta Bowl as a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, which lost only once to then-No. 9 Georgia when the Rebels led by nine points in the fourth quarter.
Ole Miss avenged that loss a week ago in the Sugar Bowl.
Frankly, I thought the Fiesta Bowl betting line would be the other way around with the Rebels a slight favorite over the Hurricanes.
Of course, the oddsmakers set the betting line in an attempt to attract equal money bet on both teams – not because they believe Miami is 3.5 points better than Ole Miss. Georgia, by the way, was a 6.5 point pick over Ole Miss last week. Miami was an underdog in both of its playoff games. Underdogs have won four of six playoff games thus far. Power conference underdogs are a perfect 4-0.
There is a recency bias at work here with the Miami-Ole Miss betting line. Miami is a white-hot football team, having closed the regular season with four consecutive convincing victories, followed by two impressive playoffs victories. The Hurricanes won at Texas A&M in the opening round slugfest and then stunned defending national champ and second-ranked Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl. That was the biggest upset in playoff history with Miami a 9.5-point underdog.
Miami dominated Ohio State for most of the game, leading 14-0 at halftime. When Ohio State looked to be mounting a second half comeback, the Hurricanes just mauled the Buckeyes at the line of scrimmage offensively, much the way they had Texas A&M in the opening round. Color me surprised if the Hurricanes don’t try and do the same to Ole Miss. The Miami offensive line is as massive as it is effective. Miami running back Mark Fletcher is a 225-pound bruiser who pushes the pile and breaks tackles. He is a load.
This isn’t exactly breaking news here, but Ole Miss must first stop the run to have a chance to stop Miami. Accomplish that, and then the Rebels have to deal with quarterback Carson Beck’s passing. Beck, a multi-million dollar transfer portal acquisition, is a classic drop-back, pro-style passer who is quite accurate when he has a clean pocket. As with 99% of quarterbacks, Beck becomes much more average when he has defenders in his face.
And that was the case on Nov. 9, 2024, when Pete Golding’s Ole Miss defense sacked him five times in the Rebels’ 28-10 victory over Georgia. Beck was limited to 181 yards passing and zero touchdowns, and he threw one interception.
The Ole Miss defensive staff believes Beck has better weapons around him and a better line in front of him at Miami than he had last season at Georgia. Still, it can’t be over-emphasized that the Rebels’ first task is to stop Fletcher and the powerful Miami running game.
Now then, let’s look at the matchup when Ole Miss is on offense. Miami’s defensive front might be the nation’s best. Defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been racing one another to get to the quarterback. The Hurricanes totaled seven sacks against A&M and then five against Ohio State. Miami leads the nation with 46 sacks on the season.
Contrast that with this: Trinidad Chambliss has not been sacked a single time in two playoffs games. Part of that is due to good protection, but much of it is due to this: Chasing Chambliss is one thing, catching him is another. On many of his drop backs against Georgia, he made like Houdini, escaping the rush when there did not seem an escape available.
You ask me, Chambliss is the X-factor in this game. He makes plays when no plays seem available. He will have to make some of those kinds of plays Thursday night for Ole Miss to advance to the national championship game.
But guess what: Chambliss has been doing it week, after week, after week. His consistency has been astounding, as his 21 passing touchdowns compared to just three pass interceptions attest. This will be his toughest task to date. The Miami defense ranks in the top 10 in every major statistical category. The Hurricanes can smother you.
Both teams are sound in the kicking game. Both have excellent placekickers, although give Ole Miss the edge in field goal range. Lucas Carneiro makes 50-yard-plus field goals look easy.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN.
A prediction: Ole Miss 34, Miami 31. Chambliss makes a game-changing play and Carneiro makes a game-winning kick.
