The angst reflected by disparaging TV ads from both camps suggests the November 7 vote in the governor’s race between Gov. Tate Reeves and Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley could be close.
An early October poll commissioned by the Reeves leaning Magnolia Tribune gave the Governor an eight point lead 51% to 43%. A week later the Presley campaign said a poll showed the race was a “dead heat” at 48% to 47%.
Meanwhile, independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray said she was withdrawing from the race and endorsed Presley. However, due to her late decision, her name will still be on the ballot. Election history indicates she should still draw from one to three percent of the vote.
Unless there is a protest vote.
You may recall that Reeves won the Republican primary in August by a noticeably lower margin than his two GOP predecessors in their runs for re-election. Reeves’ two opponents got a hefty 25% of the vote. Gov. Phil Bryant’s opponent in 2015 got 8%. In 2007 Gov. Haley Barbour’s opponent got 7%.
Some political prognosticators saw a protest vote of 5% to 10% buried in that 25% margin. “Republicans who don’t like Tate,” explained one.
Among those who like to comment on the Jackson Jambalaya blog, a number have said they will not vote for Reeves but also will not vote for a Democrat, leaving them to vote for Gray or not vote in the governor’s race.
Helping spur speculation have been higher than usual unfavorable poll ratings for the incumbent governor. A September poll commissioned by Presley leaning Mississippi Today showed nearly half of those surveyed had unfavorable opinions of Reeves.
One difference in this year’s general election comes from the constitutional amendment voters passed in 2020 on how to handle governor races when no candidate receives a majority of the vote. In the past, as when Ronnie Musgrove ran against Mike Parker, such a result would throw the race to the House of Representatives. The amendment now requires a run-off election three weeks after the general election.
The notion that Republican dislike for Reeves will keep him from getting a majority has spread across the state. A recent headline in the Biloxi Sun-Herald read, “Could the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race be decided by a runoff? Yeah, it could happen.”
A significant protest vote could dip Reeves below 50%. But most predict the results this year will be similar to the results four years ago when Reeves beat Attorney General Jim Hood 51.9% to 46.8%.
“Don’t get involved in foolish arguments, which only upset people and make them angry” – 2 Timothy 2:23.
Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.
